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AS Gabes vs Jendouba Sport — Ligue 2 2020

AS Gabes
AS Gabes
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
6/19/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Promotion DeciderStade Olympique de Sousse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AS Gabes50%
×Draw29%
Jendouba Sport21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Gabes
1.29
Jendouba Sport
0.71

AS Gabes creates 82% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 59 away

creates per match

AS Gabes
1.49
Jendouba Sport
0.86

allows per match

AS Gabes
0.57
Jendouba Sport
1.10

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw
79%
AS Gabes or Jendouba Sport
71%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
50%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+
24%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals
72%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
37%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
14%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
51%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
16%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)
71%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.49 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + AS Gabes defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AS Gabes scores more
50%
level
29%
Jendouba Sport scores more
21%

AS Gabes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Gabes 0–0 Jendouba Sport

AS Gabes and Jendouba Sport drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on June 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Sousse in Sūsah.