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AS Gabes vs ES Zarzis — Ligue 2 2020

AS Gabes
AS Gabes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
2/6/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

AS Gabes42%
×Draw29%
ES Zarzis29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Gabes
1.25
ES Zarzis
0.98

AS Gabes creates 28% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 31 away

creates per match

AS Gabes
1.49
ES Zarzis
1.39

allows per match

AS Gabes
0.57
ES Zarzis
1.00

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw
71%
AS Gabes or ES Zarzis
71%
Draw or ES Zarzis
58%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+
19%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals
71%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
36%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
13%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
62%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
26%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)
59%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.49 + ES Zarzis defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

ES Zarzis attack 1.39 + AS Gabes defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Gabes scores more
42%
level
29%
ES Zarzis scores more
29%

AS Gabes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: AS Gabes 1–0 ES Zarzis

AS Gabes beat ES Zarzis 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Zrig in Gabès.