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AS Gabes vs EO Sidi Bouzid — Ligue 2 2020

AS Gabes
AS Gabes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
2/19/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Métouia Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AS Gabes59%
×Draw25%
EO Sidi Bouzid16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Gabes
1.57
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.68

AS Gabes creates 131% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 49 away

creates per match

AS Gabes
1.49
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.78

allows per match

AS Gabes
0.57
EO Sidi Bouzid
1.65

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par
EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw
84%
AS Gabes or EO Sidi Bouzid
75%
Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid
41%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+
32%
EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals
79%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
46%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
21%
EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
49%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
15%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)
79%
EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.49 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.78 + AS Gabes defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

AS Gabes scores more
59%
level
25%
EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
16%

AS Gabes at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Gabes vs EO Sidi Bouzid

AS Gabes beat EO Sidi Bouzid 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Métouia Municipal in Métouia.