AS Eupen 0–2 Standard Liege: Result & Stats

AS Eupen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Standard Liege

1/26/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 24Stadion am Kehrweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

AS Eupen35%

×Draw25%

Standard Liege39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS EupenExpected goals in this matchStandard Liege

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.46

AS Eupen

1.37

Standard Liege

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 152 away

1.19

creates per match

1.19

1.73

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

AS Eupen

1.19

Standard Liege

1.19

allows per match

AS Eupen

1.73

Standard Liege

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Standard Liege+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Standard Liege →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw

61%

AS Eupen or Standard Liege

75%

Draw or Standard Liege

65%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+

16%

Standard Liege wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals

75%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

40%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

16%

Standard Liege 1+ goals

77%

Standard Liege 2+ goals

43%

Standard Liege 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

47%

Standard Liege (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

Standard Liege away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + Standard Liege defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Standard Liege attack 1.19 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Eupen scores more

35%

level

25%

Standard Liege scores more

39%

Standard Liege at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Standard Liege will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff