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AS Eupen vs SK Beveren — Jupiler Pro League 2018

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SK Beveren
SK Beveren
M. Koch 84'
M. Frey 11'
11/7/2020Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 12Stadion am Kehrweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

AS Eupen40%
×Draw25%
SK Beveren35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.52
SK Beveren
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 48 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.19
SK Beveren
1.10

allows per match

AS Eupen
1.73
SK Beveren
1.85

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

SK Beveren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
65%
AS Eupen or SK Beveren
75%
Draw or SK Beveren
60%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
19%
SK Beveren wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
78%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
45%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
20%
SK Beveren 1+ goals
76%
SK Beveren 2+ goals
41%
SK Beveren 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
53%
SK Beveren (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + SK Beveren defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

SK Beveren attack 1.10 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AS Eupen scores more
40%
level
25%
SK Beveren scores more
35%

AS Eupen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Frey↳ L. Bertone
15'
E. Kayembe← J. Cools
58'
A. Baby← M. Koné
74'
Stef Peeters
84'
K. N’Dri← K. Musona
84'
M. Koch
88'
Andrija Vukčević
89'
D. Heymans← G. Mandjeck
90'
Aleksandar Vukotić
90'
A. Koita← D. Sinani

Statistics

ASSK
Overview
15Corners4
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Jupiler Pro League: AS Eupen 1–1 SK Beveren

AS Eupen and SK Beveren drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on November 7, 2020.

Goals: M. Frey (11'), M. Koch (84').

The match was played at Stadion am Kehrweg in Eupen.