AS Eupen 1–1 Royal Excel Mouscron: Result & Stats

AS Eupen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Royal Excel Mouscron

1/30/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 23Stadion am Kehrweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AS Eupen39%

×Draw25%

Royal Excel Mouscron36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS EupenExpected goals in this matchRoyal Excel Mouscron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.36

AS Eupen

1.44

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 45 away

1.19

creates per match

1.00

1.73

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

AS Eupen

1.19

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.00

allows per match

AS Eupen

1.73

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Royal Excel Mouscron+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Royal Excel Mouscron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw

64%

AS Eupen or Royal Excel Mouscron

75%

Draw or Royal Excel Mouscron

61%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+

19%

Royal Excel Mouscron wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals

76%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

42%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

18%

Royal Excel Mouscron 1+ goals

74%

Royal Excel Mouscron 2+ goals

39%

Royal Excel Mouscron 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

52%

Royal Excel Mouscron (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

Royal Excel Mouscron away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.00 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Eupen scores more

39%

level

25%

Royal Excel Mouscron scores more

36%

AS Eupen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff