AS Eupen 1–1 Lokeren-Temse: Result & Stats

AS Eupen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lokeren-Temse

Y. Van Genechten 9'

M. Soumare 72'

1/27/2026

League #145 · Round 22Kehrwegstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AS Eupen53%

×Draw25%

Lokeren-Temse22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS EupenExpected goals in this matchLokeren-Temse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.94

AS Eupen

1.61

Lokeren-Temse

0.94

AS Eupen creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

1.73

creates per match

1.00

0.87

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AS Eupen

1.73

Lokeren-Temse

1.00

allows per match

AS Eupen

0.87

Lokeren-Temse

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Lokeren-Temse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Lokeren-Temse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw

78%

AS Eupen or Lokeren-Temse

75%

Draw or Lokeren-Temse

47%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+

28%

Lokeren-Temse wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals

80%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

48%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

22%

Lokeren-Temse 1+ goals

61%

Lokeren-Temse 2+ goals

24%

Lokeren-Temse 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

71%

Lokeren-Temse (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Lokeren-Temse away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.73 + Lokeren-Temse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lokeren-Temse attack 1.00 + AS Eupen defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AS Eupen scores more

53%

level

25%

Lokeren-Temse scores more

22%

AS Eupen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Soumare

Lokeren-Temse · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

Y. Van Genechten

36'

Gabriel Bares

61'

T. Boere← S. Brebels

62'

R. Van den Bergh← N. Boujouh

65'

L. Delaurier-Chaubet← I. Nuhu

71'

Kevin Möhwald

72'

M. Soumare↳ T. Boere

78'

O. Busquets← G. Bares

86'

Z. Atteri← Kikas

90+2'

I. Boonen← A. Brrou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ASLokeren-Temse

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots20

2.51Expected Goals (xG)1.61

6Corners8

19Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots20

6On Target7

3Off Target7

2Blocked6

9Inside Box15

2Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

493Total Passes379

421Accurate Passes301

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2