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AS Eupen vs Liège — League #145 2026

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Liège
Liège
I. Nuhu 71'
B. Caliskan 50'
8/9/2025League #145League #145 · Round 1Kehrwegstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

AS Eupen51%
×Draw25%
Liège24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.58
Liège
1.00

AS Eupen creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.73
Liège
1.14

allows per match

AS Eupen
0.87
Liège
1.43

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
Liège+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Liège →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
76%
AS Eupen or Liège
75%
Draw or Liège
49%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
26%
Liège wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
79%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
47%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
21%
Liège 1+ goals
63%
Liège 2+ goals
26%
Liège 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
68%
Liège (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Liège away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.73 + Liège defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

Liège attack 1.14 + AS Eupen defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AS Eupen scores more
51%
level
25%
Liège scores more
24%

AS Eupen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AS Eupen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. HillerAS EupenAS Eupen · G
6.9

Match Events

14'
K. Youndje← N. Gavory
50'
B. Caliskan↳ A. Keita
66'
D. Kasper← Z. Atteri
66'
L. Delaurier-Chaubet← T. Marechal
68'
K. Hazard← A. Lefebvre
68'
D. Mouchamps← S. Marzo
70'
Jordan Bustin
70'
M. Muller← A. Keita
71'
I. Nuhu
79'
P. Ngawa← F. Da Silva
79'
J. D'Ostilio← L. Lucker

Possession

38%AS

Shots

4AS

Pass accuracy

49%AS

Statistics

ASLiège
Overview
38%Possession62%
4Total Shots2
3Corners2
3Fouls4
Shots
4Total Shots2
3On Target1
1Off Target1
0Blocked0
2Inside Box2
2Outside Box0
Passing
38%Possession62%
181Total Passes292
148Accurate Passes251
82%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
3Fouls4
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: AS Eupen vs Liège

AS Eupen beat Liège 2-0 in League #145 on August 9, 2025.

Goals: B. Caliskan (50'), I. Nuhu (71').

Liège controlled possession (62%) and registered 2 shots to 4.

The match was played at Kehrwegstadion in Eupen.