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AS Eupen vs KVC Westerlo — Jupiler Pro League 2018

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
7/29/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 1Kehrwegstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

AS Eupen36%
×Draw24%
KVC Westerlo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.46
KVC Westerlo
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 82 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.19
KVC Westerlo
1.35

allows per match

AS Eupen
1.73
KVC Westerlo
1.73

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
KVC Westerlo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
60%
AS Eupen or KVC Westerlo
76%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
64%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
17%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
77%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
43%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
18%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
79%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
45%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
48%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.73 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

KVC Westerlo attack 1.35 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AS Eupen scores more
36%
level
24%
KVC Westerlo scores more
40%

KVC Westerlo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: AS Eupen 2–2 KVC Westerlo

AS Eupen and KVC Westerlo drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Kehrwegstadion in Eupen.