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AS Eupen vs Genk — Jupiler Pro League 2018

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Genk
Genk
2/1/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 22Stadion am Kehrweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

AS Eupen30%
×Draw24%
Genk47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.32
Genk
1.71

Genk creates 30% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 155 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.19
Genk
1.69

allows per match

AS Eupen
1.73
Genk
1.45

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
Genk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Genk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
53%
AS Eupen or Genk
76%
Draw or Genk
70%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
13%
Genk wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
73%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
38%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
15%
Genk 1+ goals
82%
Genk 2+ goals
51%
Genk 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
39%
Genk (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

Genk away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.45 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + Genk defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Genk attack 1.69 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AS Eupen scores more
30%
level
24%
Genk scores more
47%

Genk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Eupen vs Genk

AS Eupen and Genk drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on February 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Kehrweg in Eupen.