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AS Eupen II vs La Calamine — League #148 2026

AS Eupen II
AS Eupen II
FT
2 – 3
La Calamine
La Calamine
2/26/2025League #148League #148 · ACFF - 26Stade Kehrweg Terrain 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AS Eupen II24%
×Draw23%
La Calamine53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen II
1.19
La Calamine
1.85

La Calamine creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

AS Eupen II
1.38
La Calamine
1.33

allows per match

AS Eupen II
2.38
La Calamine
1.00

finishing

AS Eupen II+0.00on par
La Calamine+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen II ↓

La Calamine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AS Eupen II or draw
47%
AS Eupen II or La Calamine
77%
Draw or La Calamine
76%

Winning margin

AS Eupen II wins by 2+
10%
La Calamine wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

AS Eupen II 1+ goals
70%
AS Eupen II 2+ goals
33%
AS Eupen II 3+ goals
12%
La Calamine 1+ goals
84%
La Calamine 2+ goals
55%
La Calamine 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen II (draw refunded)
32%
La Calamine (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

La Calamine away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen II attack 1.38 + La Calamine defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

La Calamine attack 1.33 + AS Eupen II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AS Eupen II scores more
24%
level
23%
La Calamine scores more
53%

La Calamine at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "La Calamine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AS Eupen II 2 – 3 La Calamine

La Calamine beat AS Eupen II 3-2 in League #148 on February 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Kehrweg Terrain 2 in Eupen.