AS Eupen II 2–3 Acren-Lessines: Result & Stats

AS Eupen II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Acren-Lessines

10/20/2024

League #148 · ACFF - 9Stade Kehrweg Terrain 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AS Eupen II35%

×Draw20%

Acren-Lessines46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Eupen IIExpected goals in this matchAcren-Lessines

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

2.41

AS Eupen II

2.10

Acren-Lessines

2.41

Acren-Lessines creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

1.41

creates per match

2.40

2.41

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

AS Eupen II

1.41

Acren-Lessines

2.40

allows per match

AS Eupen II

2.41

Acren-Lessines

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Eupen II+0.00on par

Acren-Lessines+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen II ↓

Acren-Lessines →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

AS Eupen II or draw

54%

AS Eupen II or Acren-Lessines

80%

Draw or Acren-Lessines

65%

Winning margin

AS Eupen II wins by 2+

19%

Acren-Lessines wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

AS Eupen II 1+ goals

88%

AS Eupen II 2+ goals

62%

AS Eupen II 3+ goals

35%

Acren-Lessines 1+ goals

91%

Acren-Lessines 2+ goals

69%

Acren-Lessines 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen II (draw refunded)

43%

Acren-Lessines (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

Acren-Lessines away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen II attack 1.41 + Acren-Lessines defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Acren-Lessines attack 2.40 + AS Eupen II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AS Eupen II scores more

35%

level

20%

Acren-Lessines scores more

46%

Acren-Lessines at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Acren-Lessines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff