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AS Entou vs Nouakchott King's — Premier League 2020

AS Entou
AS Entou
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
Nouakchott King's
Nouakchott King's
12/30/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AS Entou23%
×Draw22%
Nouakchott King's55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Entou
1.17
Nouakchott King's
1.93

Nouakchott King's creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 77 away

creates per match

AS Entou
1.08
Nouakchott King's
1.23

allows per match

AS Entou
2.62
Nouakchott King's
1.25

finishing

AS Entou+0.00on par
Nouakchott King's+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Entou ↓

Nouakchott King's →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AS Entou or draw
45%
AS Entou or Nouakchott King's
78%
Draw or Nouakchott King's
77%

Winning margin

AS Entou wins by 2+
9%
Nouakchott King's wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

AS Entou 1+ goals
69%
AS Entou 2+ goals
33%
AS Entou 3+ goals
11%
Nouakchott King's 1+ goals
85%
Nouakchott King's 2+ goals
57%
Nouakchott King's 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

AS Entou (draw refunded)
29%
Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Entou at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Nouakchott King's away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Entou attack 1.08 + Nouakchott King's defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nouakchott King's attack 1.23 + AS Entou defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AS Entou scores more
23%
level
22%
Nouakchott King's scores more
55%

Nouakchott King's at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nouakchott King's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: AS Entou 1–6 Nouakchott King's

Nouakchott King's beat AS Entou 6-1 in Premier League on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.