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AS Entou vs Nouadhibou — Premier League 2020

AS Entou
AS Entou
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
12/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AS Entou13%
×Draw19%
Nouadhibou68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Entou
0.82
Nouadhibou
2.14

Nouadhibou creates 161% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 80 away

creates per match

AS Entou
1.08
Nouadhibou
1.66

allows per match

AS Entou
2.62
Nouadhibou
0.57

finishing

AS Entou+0.00on par
Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Entou ↓

Nouadhibou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AS Entou or draw
32%
AS Entou or Nouadhibou
81%
Draw or Nouadhibou
87%

Winning margin

AS Entou wins by 2+
4%
Nouadhibou wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

AS Entou 1+ goals
56%
AS Entou 2+ goals
20%
AS Entou 3+ goals
5%
Nouadhibou 1+ goals
88%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
63%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

AS Entou (draw refunded)
16%
Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Entou at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Entou attack 1.08 + Nouadhibou defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.82

Nouadhibou attack 1.66 + AS Entou defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

AS Entou scores more
13%
level
19%
Nouadhibou scores more
68%

Nouadhibou at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: AS Entou 0–7 Nouadhibou

Nouadhibou beat AS Entou 7-0 in Premier League on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.