AS Entou 3–1 Chemal: Result & Stats

AS Entou

FT

3 – 1

Chemal

10/6/2023

Premier League · Round 3Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AS Entou22%

×Draw22%

Chemal56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS EntouExpected goals in this matchChemal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.96

AS Entou

1.14

Chemal

1.96

Chemal creates 72% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 53 away

1.08

creates per match

1.30

2.62

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

AS Entou

1.08

Chemal

1.30

allows per match

AS Entou

2.62

Chemal

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Entou+0.00on par

Chemal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Entou ↓

Chemal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

AS Entou or draw

44%

AS Entou or Chemal

78%

Draw or Chemal

78%

Winning margin

AS Entou wins by 2+

8%

Chemal wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

AS Entou 1+ goals

68%

AS Entou 2+ goals

32%

AS Entou 3+ goals

11%

Chemal 1+ goals

86%

Chemal 2+ goals

58%

Chemal 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

AS Entou (draw refunded)

28%

Chemal (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Entou at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Chemal away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Entou attack 1.08 + Chemal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Chemal attack 1.30 + AS Entou defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AS Entou scores more

22%

level

22%

Chemal scores more

56%

Chemal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chemal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff