AS Cotonou 3–0 Sitatunga: Result & Stats

AS Cotonou

FT

3 – 0

Sitatunga

9/28/2024

Championnat National · Group B - 1Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

AS Cotonou48%

×Draw31%

Sitatunga21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS CotonouExpected goals in this matchSitatunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.68

AS Cotonou

1.19

Sitatunga

0.68

AS Cotonou creates 75% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 46 away

1.12

creates per match

0.70

0.66

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

AS Cotonou

1.12

Sitatunga

0.70

allows per match

AS Cotonou

0.66

Sitatunga

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Sitatunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

Sitatunga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw

79%

AS Cotonou or Sitatunga

69%

Draw or Sitatunga

52%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+

21%

Sitatunga wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals

70%

AS Cotonou 2+ goals

33%

AS Cotonou 3+ goals

12%

Sitatunga 1+ goals

49%

Sitatunga 2+ goals

15%

Sitatunga 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)

70%

Sitatunga (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

Sitatunga away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + Sitatunga defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sitatunga attack 0.70 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AS Cotonou scores more

48%

level

31%

Sitatunga scores more

21%

AS Cotonou at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff