AS Cotonou 2–0 Kraké: Result & Stats

AS Cotonou

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kraké

11/9/2024

Championnat National · Group B - 7Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

AS Cotonou42%

×Draw30%

Kraké28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS CotonouExpected goals in this matchKraké

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.88

AS Cotonou

1.17

Kraké

0.88

AS Cotonou creates 33% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 34 away

1.12

creates per match

1.09

0.66

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

AS Cotonou

1.12

Kraké

1.09

allows per match

AS Cotonou

0.66

Kraké

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Kraké+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

Kraké →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw

72%

AS Cotonou or Kraké

70%

Draw or Kraké

58%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+

18%

Kraké wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals

69%

AS Cotonou 2+ goals

33%

AS Cotonou 3+ goals

11%

Kraké 1+ goals

59%

Kraké 2+ goals

22%

Kraké 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)

61%

Kraké (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

Kraké away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + Kraké defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kraké attack 1.09 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AS Cotonou scores more

42%

level

30%

Kraké scores more

28%

AS Cotonou at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff