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AS Cotonou vs Etoile Filante — Championnat National 2019

AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
1/4/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 15Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

AS Cotonou52%
×Draw30%
Etoile Filante18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Cotonou
1.22
Etoile Filante
0.59

AS Cotonou creates 107% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 29 away

creates per match

AS Cotonou
1.12
Etoile Filante
0.52

allows per match

AS Cotonou
0.66
Etoile Filante
1.31

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par
Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

Etoile Filante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw
82%
AS Cotonou or Etoile Filante
70%
Draw or Etoile Filante
48%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+
24%
Etoile Filante wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals
70%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
34%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
12%
Etoile Filante 1+ goals
45%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
12%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
74%
Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AS Cotonou scores more
52%
level
30%
Etoile Filante scores more
18%

AS Cotonou at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: AS Cotonou 0–0 Etoile Filante

AS Cotonou and Etoile Filante drew 0-0 in Championnat National on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa in Cotonou.