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AS Cotonou vs Dynamo Unacob — Championnat National 2019

AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
FT
2 – 1
Dynamo Unacob
Dynamo Unacob
5/19/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 1Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

AS Cotonou50%
×Draw29%
Dynamo Unacob21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Cotonou
1.32
Dynamo Unacob
0.74

AS Cotonou creates 78% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 87 away

creates per match

AS Cotonou
1.12
Dynamo Unacob
0.82

allows per match

AS Cotonou
0.66
Dynamo Unacob
1.52

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par
Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

Dynamo Unacob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw
79%
AS Cotonou or Dynamo Unacob
71%
Draw or Dynamo Unacob
50%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+
24%
Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals
73%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
38%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
15%
Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals
52%
Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals
17%
Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
71%
Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AS Cotonou scores more
50%
level
29%
Dynamo Unacob scores more
21%

AS Cotonou at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: AS Cotonou 2–1 Dynamo Unacob

AS Cotonou beat Dynamo Unacob 2-1 in Championnat National on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cotonou II in Porto-Novo.