AS Cotonou 0–3 Damissa: Result & Stats

AS Cotonou

FT

0 – 3

Damissa

5/25/2024

Championnat National · Championship Round - 19Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

AS Cotonou39%

×Draw33%

Damissa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS CotonouExpected goals in this matchDamissa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.80

AS Cotonou

0.99

Damissa

0.80

AS Cotonou creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 107 away

1.12

creates per match

0.93

0.66

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

AS Cotonou

1.12

Damissa

0.93

allows per match

AS Cotonou

0.66

Damissa

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par

Damissa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

Damissa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw

72%

AS Cotonou or Damissa

67%

Draw or Damissa

61%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+

15%

Damissa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals

63%

AS Cotonou 2+ goals

26%

AS Cotonou 3+ goals

8%

Damissa 1+ goals

55%

Damissa 2+ goals

19%

Damissa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)

58%

Damissa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

Damissa away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.86 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + Damissa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Damissa attack 0.93 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Cotonou scores more

39%

level

33%

Damissa scores more

28%

AS Cotonou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff