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AS Cotonou vs Coton Sport Ouidah — Championnat National 2019

AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coton Sport Ouidah
Coton Sport Ouidah
6/6/2026Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

AS Cotonou34%
×Draw32%
Coton Sport Ouidah33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Cotonou
0.93
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 94 away

creates per match

AS Cotonou
1.12
Coton Sport Ouidah
1.16

allows per match

AS Cotonou
0.66
Coton Sport Ouidah
0.73

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par
Coton Sport Ouidah+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

Coton Sport Ouidah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw
67%
AS Cotonou or Coton Sport Ouidah
68%
Draw or Coton Sport Ouidah
66%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+
12%
Coton Sport Ouidah wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals
61%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
24%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
7%
Coton Sport Ouidah 1+ goals
60%
Coton Sport Ouidah 2+ goals
23%
Coton Sport Ouidah 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
51%
Coton Sport Ouidah (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

Coton Sport Ouidah away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + Coton Sport Ouidah defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Coton Sport Ouidah attack 1.16 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

AS Cotonou scores more
34%
level
32%
Coton Sport Ouidah scores more
33%

AS Cotonou at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: AS Cotonou 0–1 Coton Sport Ouidah

Coton Sport Ouidah beat AS Cotonou 1-0 in Championnat National on June 6, 2026.