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AS Cotonou vs Béké Bembèrèkè — Championnat National 2019

AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
FT
0 – 2
Béké Bembèrèkè
Béké Bembèrèkè
6/16/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 15Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

AS Cotonou44%
×Draw31%
Béké Bembèrèkè25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Cotonou
1.14
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.79

AS Cotonou creates 44% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 99 away

creates per match

AS Cotonou
1.12
Béké Bembèrèkè
0.91

allows per match

AS Cotonou
0.66
Béké Bembèrèkè
1.15

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par
Béké Bembèrèkè+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

Béké Bembèrèkè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw
75%
AS Cotonou or Béké Bembèrèkè
69%
Draw or Béké Bembèrèkè
56%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+
19%
Béké Bembèrèkè wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals
68%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
32%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
11%
Béké Bembèrèkè 1+ goals
55%
Béké Bembèrèkè 2+ goals
19%
Béké Bembèrèkè 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
63%
Béké Bembèrèkè (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

Béké Bembèrèkè away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + Béké Bembèrèkè defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Béké Bembèrèkè attack 0.91 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AS Cotonou scores more
44%
level
31%
Béké Bembèrèkè scores more
25%

AS Cotonou at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: AS Cotonou 0–2 Béké Bembèrèkè

Béké Bembèrèkè beat AS Cotonou 2-0 in Championnat National on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cotonou II in Porto-Novo.