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AS Cotonou vs ASPAC — Championnat National 2019

AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ASPAC
ASPAC
5/10/2026Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

AS Cotonou40%
×Draw33%
ASPAC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Cotonou
0.99
ASPAC
0.76

AS Cotonou creates 30% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

AS Cotonou
1.12
ASPAC
0.86

allows per match

AS Cotonou
0.66
ASPAC
0.86

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par
ASPAC+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

ASPAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw
73%
AS Cotonou or ASPAC
67%
Draw or ASPAC
60%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+
15%
ASPAC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals
63%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
26%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
8%
ASPAC 1+ goals
53%
ASPAC 2+ goals
18%
ASPAC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
59%
ASPAC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

ASPAC away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + ASPAC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

ASPAC attack 0.86 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AS Cotonou scores more
40%
level
33%
ASPAC scores more
27%

AS Cotonou at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Cotonou vs ASPAC

ASPAC beat AS Cotonou 1-0 in Championnat National on May 10, 2026.