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AS Ain Mlila vs Paradou AC — Ligue 1 2018

AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paradou AC
Paradou AC
5/21/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi (Aïn M'lila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AS Ain Mlila45%
×Draw30%
Paradou AC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Ain Mlila
1.21
Paradou AC
0.82

AS Ain Mlila creates 48% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 120 away

creates per match

AS Ain Mlila
1.09
Paradou AC
1.07

allows per match

AS Ain Mlila
0.58
Paradou AC
1.32

finishing

AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par
Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Ain Mlila ↓

Paradou AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Ain Mlila or draw
75%
AS Ain Mlila or Paradou AC
70%
Draw or Paradou AC
55%

Winning margin

AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
20%
Paradou AC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
70%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
34%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
12%
Paradou AC 1+ goals
56%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
20%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
64%
Paradou AC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Ain Mlila at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Ain Mlila attack 1.09 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Paradou AC attack 1.07 + AS Ain Mlila defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AS Ain Mlila scores more
45%
level
30%
Paradou AC scores more
25%

AS Ain Mlila at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AS Ain Mlila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AS Ain Mlila 1 – 0 Paradou AC

AS Ain Mlila beat Paradou AC 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi (Aïn M'lila).