Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AS Agareb vs Stade Gabesien — Ligue 2 2020

AS Agareb
AS Agareb
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
11/17/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Agareb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AS Agareb41%
×Draw30%
Stade Gabesien29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Agareb
1.14
Stade Gabesien
0.91

AS Agareb creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 60 away

creates per match

AS Agareb
1.15
Stade Gabesien
0.73

allows per match

AS Agareb
1.08
Stade Gabesien
1.12

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw
71%
AS Agareb or Stade Gabesien
70%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
59%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+
17%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals
68%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
32%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
11%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
60%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
23%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)
59%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 1.15 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + AS Agareb defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AS Agareb scores more
41%
level
30%
Stade Gabesien scores more
29%

AS Agareb at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Agareb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Agareb vs Stade Gabesien

AS Agareb and Stade Gabesien drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Agareb in Agareb.