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AS Agareb vs Sporting Ben Arous — Cup 2019

AS Agareb
AS Agarebadvanced
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
1/10/2026CupCup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AS Agareb26%
×Draw26%
Sporting Ben Arous49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Agareb
1.04
Sporting Ben Arous
1.54

Sporting Ben Arous creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

AS Agareb
0.75
Sporting Ben Arous
1.33

allows per match

AS Agareb
1.75
Sporting Ben Arous
1.33

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw
51%
AS Agareb or Sporting Ben Arous
74%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
74%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+
9%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals
65%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
28%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
9%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
79%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
45%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)
34%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 0.75 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sporting Ben Arous attack 1.33 + AS Agareb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AS Agareb scores more
26%
level
26%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
49%

Sporting Ben Arous at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sporting Ben Arous will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: AS Agareb 2–2 Sporting Ben Arous

AS Agareb and Sporting Ben Arous drew 2-2 in Cup on January 10, 2026.