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AS Agareb vs Redeyef — Ligue 2 2020

AS Agareb
AS Agareb
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Redeyef
Redeyef
12/8/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Agareb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AS Agareb53%
×Draw27%
Redeyef20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Agareb
1.46
Redeyef
0.79

AS Agareb creates 85% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

AS Agareb
1.15
Redeyef
0.50

allows per match

AS Agareb
1.08
Redeyef
1.77

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par
Redeyef+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

Redeyef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw
80%
AS Agareb or Redeyef
73%
Draw or Redeyef
47%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+
27%
Redeyef wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals
77%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
43%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
18%
Redeyef 1+ goals
55%
Redeyef 2+ goals
19%
Redeyef 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)
72%
Redeyef (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Redeyef away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 1.15 + Redeyef defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Redeyef attack 0.50 + AS Agareb defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AS Agareb scores more
53%
level
27%
Redeyef scores more
20%

AS Agareb at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AS Agareb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Agareb vs Redeyef

AS Agareb beat Redeyef 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Agareb in Agareb.