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AS Agareb vs Kosovo U19 — Cup 2019

AS Agareb
AS Agareb
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kosovo U19
Kosovo U19
3/1/2020CupCup · 16th FinalsStade Agareb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AS Agareb14%
×Draw23%
Kosovo U1963%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Agareb
0.68
Kosovo U19
1.77

Kosovo U19 creates 160% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

AS Agareb
0.75
Kosovo U19
1.80

allows per match

AS Agareb
1.75
Kosovo U19
0.60

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par
Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

Kosovo U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–214%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw
37%
AS Agareb or Kosovo U19
77%
Draw or Kosovo U19
86%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+
4%
Kosovo U19 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals
49%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
15%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
3%
Kosovo U19 1+ goals
83%
Kosovo U19 2+ goals
53%
Kosovo U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)
18%
Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 0.75 + Kosovo U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68

Kosovo U19 attack 1.80 + AS Agareb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AS Agareb scores more
14%
level
23%
Kosovo U19 scores more
63%

Kosovo U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kosovo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Agareb vs Kosovo U19

Kosovo U19 beat AS Agareb 1-0 in Cup on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Agareb in Agareb.