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AS Agareb vs Jerba — Ligue 2 2020

AS Agareb
AS Agareb
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jerba
Jerba
11/2/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Agareb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AS Agareb44%
×Draw30%
Jerba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Agareb
1.19
Jerba
0.84

AS Agareb creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 48 away

creates per match

AS Agareb
1.15
Jerba
0.60

allows per match

AS Agareb
1.08
Jerba
1.23

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw
74%
AS Agareb or Jerba
70%
Draw or Jerba
56%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+
19%
Jerba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals
70%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
33%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
12%
Jerba 1+ goals
57%
Jerba 2+ goals
21%
Jerba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)
63%
Jerba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 1.15 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Jerba attack 0.60 + AS Agareb defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AS Agareb scores more
44%
level
30%
Jerba scores more
26%

AS Agareb at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AS Agareb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Agareb vs Jerba

AS Agareb beat Jerba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Agareb in Agareb.