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AS Agareb vs Jendouba Sport — Cup 2019

AS Agareb
AS Agareb
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
1/18/2025CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Agareb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

AS Agareb15%
×Draw21%
Jendouba Sport64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Agareb
0.80
Jendouba Sport
1.95

Jendouba Sport creates 144% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

AS Agareb
0.75
Jendouba Sport
2.14

allows per match

AS Agareb
1.75
Jendouba Sport
0.86

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw
36%
AS Agareb or Jendouba Sport
79%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
85%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+
4%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals
55%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
19%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
5%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
86%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
58%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)
19%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 0.75 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Jendouba Sport attack 2.14 + AS Agareb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

AS Agareb scores more
15%
level
21%
Jendouba Sport scores more
64%

Jendouba Sport at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Agareb vs Jendouba Sport

Jendouba Sport beat AS Agareb 2-0 in Cup on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Agareb in Agareb.