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Arzúa vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arzúa60%
×Draw22%
Pontevedra II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.86
Pontevedra II
0.90

Arzúa creates 107% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
82%
Arzúa or Pontevedra II
78%
Draw or Pontevedra II
40%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
35%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
84%
Arzúa 2+ goals
55%
Arzúa 3+ goals
28%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
59%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
23%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
77%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.86

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Arzúa scores more
60%
level
22%
Pontevedra II scores more
18%

Arzúa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Arzúa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arzúa vs Pontevedra II

Pontevedra II beat Arzúa 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.