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Arzúa vs Noia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Noia
Noia
2/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Arzúa46%
×Draw27%
Noia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.41
Noia
1.00

Arzúa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 50 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Noia
0.92

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Noia
1.50

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Noia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Noia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
73%
Arzúa or Noia
73%
Draw or Noia
54%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
22%
Noia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
76%
Arzúa 2+ goals
41%
Arzúa 3+ goals
17%
Noia 1+ goals
63%
Noia 2+ goals
26%
Noia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
63%
Noia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Noia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Noia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Noia attack 0.92 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arzúa scores more
46%
level
27%
Noia scores more
27%

Arzúa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arzúa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Arzúa 1–1 Noia

Arzúa and Noia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.