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Arzúa vs Choco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Choco
Choco
11/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Arzúa45%
×Draw27%
Choco28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.36
Choco
1.00

Arzúa creates 36% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 59 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Choco
0.92

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Choco
1.42

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Choco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
72%
Arzúa or Choco
73%
Draw or Choco
55%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
21%
Choco wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
74%
Arzúa 2+ goals
39%
Arzúa 3+ goals
16%
Choco 1+ goals
63%
Choco 2+ goals
26%
Choco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
62%
Choco (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Choco attack 0.92 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arzúa scores more
45%
level
27%
Choco scores more
28%

Arzúa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arzúa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arzúa 1 – 1 Choco

Arzúa and Choco drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.