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Arzúa vs Bergantiños — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bergantiños
Bergantiños
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Arzúa34%
×Draw28%
Bergantiños38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.12
Bergantiños
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 44 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Bergantiños
1.32

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Bergantiños
0.93

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Bergantiños+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Bergantiños →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
62%
Arzúa or Bergantiños
72%
Draw or Bergantiños
66%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
14%
Bergantiños wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
67%
Arzúa 2+ goals
31%
Arzúa 3+ goals
10%
Bergantiños 1+ goals
70%
Bergantiños 2+ goals
34%
Bergantiños 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
47%
Bergantiños (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Bergantiños away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Bergantiños defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.12

Bergantiños attack 1.32 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arzúa scores more
34%
level
28%
Bergantiños scores more
38%

Bergantiños at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bergantiños will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arzúa vs Bergantiños

Bergantiños beat Arzúa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.