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Arzúa vs Alondras — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Alondras
Alondras
10/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Arzúa41%
×Draw27%
Alondras31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.31
Alondras
1.11

Arzúa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 109 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Alondras
1.15

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Alondras
1.30

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Alondras+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Alondras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
69%
Arzúa or Alondras
73%
Draw or Alondras
59%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
19%
Alondras wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
73%
Arzúa 2+ goals
38%
Arzúa 3+ goals
14%
Alondras 1+ goals
67%
Alondras 2+ goals
30%
Alondras 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
57%
Alondras (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Alondras away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Alondras defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alondras attack 1.15 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arzúa scores more
41%
level
27%
Alondras scores more
31%

Arzúa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arzúa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Arzúa 3–4 Alondras

Alondras beat Arzúa 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.