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Arzúa vs Agrupación Estudiantil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
12/27/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arzúa52%
×Draw24%
Agrupación Estudiantil24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.72
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.10

Arzúa creates 56% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.12

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Agrupación Estudiantil
2.12

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Agrupación Estudiantil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
76%
Arzúa or Agrupación Estudiantil
76%
Draw or Agrupación Estudiantil
48%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
28%
Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
82%
Arzúa 2+ goals
51%
Arzúa 3+ goals
25%
Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
67%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
30%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
68%
Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Agrupación Estudiantil away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.72

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.12 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arzúa scores more
52%
level
24%
Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
24%

Arzúa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arzúa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Arzúa 6–1 Agrupación Estudiantil

Arzúa beat Agrupación Estudiantil 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.