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Arzignano Valchiampo vs Spinea — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
FT
3 – 1
Spinea
Spinea
11/21/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 10Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arzignano Valchiampo64%
×Draw20%
Spinea16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzignano Valchiampo
2.12
Spinea
0.97

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 119% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
2.29
Spinea
1.12

allows per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
0.82
Spinea
1.94

finishing

Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par
Spinea+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzignano Valchiampo ↓

Spinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Arzignano Valchiampo or draw
84%
Arzignano Valchiampo or Spinea
80%
Draw or Spinea
36%

Winning margin

Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
40%
Spinea wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
88%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
62%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
35%
Spinea 1+ goals
62%
Spinea 2+ goals
25%
Spinea 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
80%
Spinea (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzignano Valchiampo at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Spinea away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.29 + Spinea defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.12

Spinea attack 1.12 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
64%
level
20%
Spinea scores more
16%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arzignano Valchiampo vs Spinea

Arzignano Valchiampo beat Spinea 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin in Arzignano.