Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arzignano Valchiampo vs Cattolica — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cattolica
Cattolica
S. Fyda 90+2', 79'
F. Cariolato 51'
V. Cali 43'
V. Nchama 18'
L. Rabbeni 66'
4/10/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 28Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arzignano Valchiampo70%
×Draw19%
Cattolica11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzignano Valchiampo
2.08
Cattolica
0.68

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 206% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
2.29
Cattolica
0.53

allows per match

Arzignano Valchiampo
0.82
Cattolica
1.88

finishing

Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par
Cattolica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzignano Valchiampo ↓

Cattolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arzignano Valchiampo or draw
89%
Arzignano Valchiampo or Cattolica
81%
Draw or Cattolica
30%

Winning margin

Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
45%
Cattolica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
87%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
61%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
34%
Cattolica 1+ goals
49%
Cattolica 2+ goals
15%
Cattolica 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
86%
Cattolica (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzignano Valchiampo at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Cattolica away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.29 + Cattolica defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.08

Cattolica attack 0.53 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
70%
level
19%
Cattolica scores more
11%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
V. Nchama
43'
V. Cali
51'
F. Cariolato
66'
L. Rabbeni
79'
S. Fyda
90+2'
S. Fyda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arzignano Valchiampo vs Cattolica

Arzignano Valchiampo beat Cattolica 5-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 10, 2022.

Goals: V. Nchama (18'), V. Cali (43'), F. Cariolato (51'), L. Rabbeni (66'), S. Fyda (79', 90+2').

The match was played at Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin in Arzignano.