Arzachena 2–2 Tivoli: Result & Stats

Arzachena

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tivoli

10/16/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 7Stadio Biagio Pirina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arzachena45%

×Draw25%

Tivoli29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArzachenaExpected goals in this matchTivoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Arzachena

1.54

Tivoli

1.19

Arzachena creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

1.48

creates per match

1.24

1.15

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Arzachena

1.48

Tivoli

1.24

allows per match

Arzachena

1.15

Tivoli

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par

Tivoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

Tivoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw

71%

Arzachena or Tivoli

75%

Draw or Tivoli

55%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+

23%

Tivoli wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals

79%

Arzachena 2+ goals

45%

Arzachena 3+ goals

20%

Tivoli 1+ goals

70%

Tivoli 2+ goals

33%

Tivoli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)

61%

Tivoli (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Tivoli away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + Tivoli defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tivoli attack 1.24 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arzachena scores more

45%

level

25%

Tivoli scores more

29%

Arzachena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff