Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arzachena vs Sarrabus Ogliastra — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Arzachena
Arzachena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Sarrabus Ogliastra
9/4/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 1Stadio Biagio Pirina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arzachena47%
×Draw25%
Sarrabus Ogliastra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzachena
1.59
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.15

Arzachena creates 38% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

Arzachena
1.48
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.16

allows per match

Arzachena
1.15
Sarrabus Ogliastra
1.71

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par
Sarrabus Ogliastra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

Sarrabus Ogliastra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw
72%
Arzachena or Sarrabus Ogliastra
75%
Draw or Sarrabus Ogliastra
53%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+
24%
Sarrabus Ogliastra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals
80%
Arzachena 2+ goals
47%
Arzachena 3+ goals
21%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 1+ goals
68%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 2+ goals
32%
Sarrabus Ogliastra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)
63%
Sarrabus Ogliastra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Sarrabus Ogliastra away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + Sarrabus Ogliastra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sarrabus Ogliastra attack 1.16 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arzachena scores more
47%
level
25%
Sarrabus Ogliastra scores more
28%

Arzachena at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Arzachena 2–1 Sarrabus Ogliastra

Arzachena beat Sarrabus Ogliastra 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Biagio Pirina in Arzachena.