Arzachena 1–0 Real Monterotondo: Result & Stats

Arzachena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Monterotondo

1/29/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 21Stadio Biagio Pirina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arzachena48%

×Draw26%

Real Monterotondo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArzachenaExpected goals in this matchReal Monterotondo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.06

Arzachena

1.54

Real Monterotondo

1.06

Arzachena creates 45% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 69 away

1.48

creates per match

0.97

1.15

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Arzachena

1.48

Real Monterotondo

0.97

allows per match

Arzachena

1.15

Real Monterotondo

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par

Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

Real Monterotondo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw

74%

Arzachena or Real Monterotondo

74%

Draw or Real Monterotondo

52%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+

25%

Real Monterotondo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals

79%

Arzachena 2+ goals

45%

Arzachena 3+ goals

20%

Real Monterotondo 1+ goals

65%

Real Monterotondo 2+ goals

29%

Real Monterotondo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)

65%

Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arzachena scores more

48%

level

26%

Real Monterotondo scores more

26%

Arzachena at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Arzachena 1–0 Real Monterotondo

Arzachena beat Real Monterotondo 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Biagio Pirina in Arzachena.

Arzachena vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Serie D - Girone G: Arzachena 1–0 Real Monterotondo