Arzachena 2–4 Ostia Mare: Result & Stats

Arzachena

FT

2 – 4

Ostia Mare

1/19/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 20Stadio Biagio Pirina (Arzachena)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arzachena35%

×Draw26%

Ostia Mare39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArzachenaExpected goals in this matchOstia Mare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.38

Arzachena

1.31

Ostia Mare

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

1.48

creates per match

1.60

1.15

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Arzachena

1.48

Ostia Mare

1.60

allows per match

Arzachena

1.15

Ostia Mare

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

Ostia Mare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw

61%

Arzachena or Ostia Mare

74%

Draw or Ostia Mare

65%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+

16%

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals

73%

Arzachena 2+ goals

38%

Arzachena 3+ goals

14%

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

75%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

40%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)

48%

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arzachena scores more

35%

level

26%

Ostia Mare scores more

39%

Ostia Mare at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff