Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arzachena vs Nola 1925 — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Arzachena
Arzachena
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nola 1925
Nola 1925
12/18/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 16Stadio Biagio Pirina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Arzachena46%
×Draw24%
Nola 192530%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzachena
1.66
Nola 1925
1.29

Arzachena creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 18 away

creates per match

Arzachena
1.48
Nola 1925
1.44

allows per match

Arzachena
1.15
Nola 1925
1.83

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par
Nola 1925+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

Nola 1925 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw
70%
Arzachena or Nola 1925
76%
Draw or Nola 1925
54%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+
24%
Nola 1925 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals
81%
Arzachena 2+ goals
49%
Arzachena 3+ goals
23%
Nola 1925 1+ goals
72%
Nola 1925 2+ goals
37%
Nola 1925 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)
61%
Nola 1925 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Nola 1925 away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + Nola 1925 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Nola 1925 attack 1.44 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arzachena scores more
46%
level
24%
Nola 1925 scores more
30%

Arzachena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Arzachena 0–2 Nola 1925

Nola 1925 beat Arzachena 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Biagio Pirina in Arzachena.