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Arzachena vs Muravera — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Arzachena
Arzachena
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Muravera
Muravera
4/20/2022Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 26Stadio Biagio Pirina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Arzachena45%
×Draw25%
Muravera30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzachena
1.60
Muravera
1.26

Arzachena creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

creates per match

Arzachena
1.48
Muravera
1.37

allows per match

Arzachena
1.15
Muravera
1.73

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par
Muravera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

Muravera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw
70%
Arzachena or Muravera
75%
Draw or Muravera
55%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+
23%
Muravera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals
80%
Arzachena 2+ goals
47%
Arzachena 3+ goals
22%
Muravera 1+ goals
72%
Muravera 2+ goals
36%
Muravera 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)
60%
Muravera (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Muravera away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + Muravera defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Muravera attack 1.37 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arzachena scores more
45%
level
25%
Muravera scores more
30%

Arzachena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Arzachena 0–1 Muravera

Muravera beat Arzachena 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Biagio Pirina in Arzachena.