Arzachena 2–4 Latte Dolce: Result & Stats

Arzachena

FT

2 – 4

Latte Dolce

9/22/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 4Stadio Biagio Pirina (Arzachena)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arzachena47%

×Draw25%

Latte Dolce28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArzachenaExpected goals in this matchLatte Dolce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.13

Arzachena

1.54

Latte Dolce

1.13

Arzachena creates 36% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 82 away

1.48

creates per match

1.10

1.15

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Arzachena

1.48

Latte Dolce

1.10

allows per match

Arzachena

1.15

Latte Dolce

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

Latte Dolce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw

72%

Arzachena or Latte Dolce

75%

Draw or Latte Dolce

53%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+

24%

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals

79%

Arzachena 2+ goals

45%

Arzachena 3+ goals

20%

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

68%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

31%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)

63%

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arzachena scores more

47%

level

25%

Latte Dolce scores more

28%

Arzachena at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff