Arzachena 2–1 Budoni: Result & Stats

Arzachena

FT

2 – 1

Budoni

1/5/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 18Stadio Biagio Pirina (Arzachena)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Arzachena47%

×Draw27%

Budoni26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArzachenaExpected goals in this matchBudoni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.99

Arzachena

1.41

Budoni

0.99

Arzachena creates 42% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 47 away

1.48

creates per match

0.83

1.15

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Arzachena

1.48

Budoni

0.83

allows per match

Arzachena

1.15

Budoni

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par

Budoni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

Budoni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw

74%

Arzachena or Budoni

73%

Draw or Budoni

53%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+

23%

Budoni wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals

76%

Arzachena 2+ goals

41%

Arzachena 3+ goals

17%

Budoni 1+ goals

63%

Budoni 2+ goals

26%

Budoni 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)

64%

Budoni (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Budoni away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + Budoni defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Budoni attack 0.83 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arzachena scores more

47%

level

27%

Budoni scores more

26%

Arzachena at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff