Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arzachena vs Atletico Uri — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Arzachena
Arzachena
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
12/22/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 16Stadio Biagio Pirina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arzachena51%
×Draw25%
Atletico Uri24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzachena
1.59
Atletico Uri
1.01

Arzachena creates 57% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

Arzachena
1.48
Atletico Uri
0.87

allows per match

Arzachena
1.15
Atletico Uri
1.71

finishing

Arzachena+0.00on par
Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzachena ↓

Atletico Uri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arzachena or draw
76%
Arzachena or Atletico Uri
75%
Draw or Atletico Uri
49%

Winning margin

Arzachena wins by 2+
27%
Atletico Uri wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arzachena 1+ goals
80%
Arzachena 2+ goals
47%
Arzachena 3+ goals
21%
Atletico Uri 1+ goals
64%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
27%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arzachena (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzachena at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzachena attack 1.48 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Arzachena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arzachena scores more
51%
level
25%
Atletico Uri scores more
24%

Arzachena at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arzachena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Arzachena 4–1 Atletico Uri

Arzachena beat Atletico Uri 4-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Biagio Pirina in Arzachena.