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Arys vs Kairat Almaty — Cup 2019

Arys
Arys
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
7/31/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 3Turkistan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Arys33%
×Draw23%
Kairat Almaty45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arys
1.52
Kairat Almaty
1.81

Kairat Almaty creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Arys
1.67
Kairat Almaty
1.86

allows per match

Arys
1.75
Kairat Almaty
1.36

finishing

Arys+0.00on par
Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arys ↓

Kairat Almaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Arys or draw
55%
Arys or Kairat Almaty
77%
Draw or Kairat Almaty
67%

Winning margin

Arys wins by 2+
15%
Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Arys 1+ goals
78%
Arys 2+ goals
45%
Arys 3+ goals
20%
Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
84%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
54%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Arys (draw refunded)
42%
Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arys at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arys attack 1.67 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kairat Almaty attack 1.86 + Arys defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arys scores more
33%
level
23%
Kairat Almaty scores more
45%

Kairat Almaty at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arys vs Kairat Almaty

Arys beat Kairat Almaty 4-3 in Cup on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Turkistan Arena in Turkistan.