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Arys vs FK Aksu — Premier League 2019

Arys
Arys
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
10/14/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Turkistan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Arys44%
×Draw27%
FK Aksu29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arys
1.39
FK Aksu
1.07

Arys creates 30% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Arys
0.73
FK Aksu
0.73

allows per match

Arys
1.42
FK Aksu
2.04

finishing

Arys+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arys ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arys or draw
71%
Arys or FK Aksu
73%
Draw or FK Aksu
56%

Winning margin

Arys wins by 2+
21%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arys 1+ goals
75%
Arys 2+ goals
40%
Arys 3+ goals
16%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
66%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
29%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arys (draw refunded)
60%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arys at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arys attack 0.73 + FK Aksu defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.39

FK Aksu attack 0.73 + Arys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arys scores more
44%
level
27%
FK Aksu scores more
29%

Arys at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Arys 0–1 FK Aksu

FK Aksu beat Arys 1-0 in Premier League on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Turkistan Arena in Turkistan.