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Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
FT
0 – 0
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
8/11/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC33%
×Draw32%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.92
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.56
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.69
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw
65%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
68%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
67%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
12%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
60%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
23%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
7%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
62%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
25%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
48%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.92

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
33%
level
32%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
35%

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "SorkhPooshan Pakdasht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Arvand Khorramshahr FC 0–0 SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

Arvand Khorramshahr FC and SorkhPooshan Pakdasht drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr).